2024 NFL Week 5 Action Report: “People don’t believe in the Jets” ahead of Vikings relegation

2024 NFL Week 5 Action Report: “People don’t believe in the Jets” ahead of Vikings relegation

A game in an unusual time slot could be one of the most important decisions in the Week 5 NFL odds market. Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets face the undefeated Minnesota Vikings on Sunday at 9:30 a.m. ET in London.

Or as we call it here in Las Vegas: Zero Dark Thirty.

Okay, it’s only 6:30 a.m., but that’s still early.

“The market is so high for the Vikings and so low for the Jets. So we’re seeing a lot of money from the Vikings right now,” Joey Feazel, head of football trading at Caesars Sports, said Wednesday night.

Oddsmakers and sharp bettors give us their insights on a handful of games as we delve into NFL Week 4 betting nuggets.

London is calling

A week ago, the Jets were predicted to be a 1-point favorite against the Vikings. Then New York laid a huge egg in Week 4, losing 10-9 to the Denver Broncos as an 8-point home favorite. That gave New York a lead of 2-2 (SU) and against the spread (ATS) for four straight weeks.

Meanwhile, Minnesota is the only team with a perfect SU and ATS at 4-0 in both respects. In Week 4 in Green Bay, the Vikes were 2.5 point underdogs on the road and managed to secure a 31-29 victory after a 28-0 lead.

When Caesars reopened the Jets-Vikings on Sunday night, the value was Minnesota -2.5, where the spread remained on Wednesday night. Sam Darnold & Co. are enjoying great popularity in this duel at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

“It will be a big decision. People don’t believe in the Jets, they believe in the Vikings,” Feazel said. “It will be interesting to see if the Vikings line reaches -3. If that’s the case, I think we’ll see a backlash from the Jets.”

Herd hierarchy: Vikings reach top 3, Commanders jump into Colin’s top 10 for week five

Herd hierarchy: Vikings reach top 3, Commanders jump into Colin's top 10 for week five

NFL rocks on FOX

In recent years, it was hard to say that a Washington Commanders game was fascinating. But 2024 is already looking very different, as Washington is off to a 3-1 SU and ATS start.

Quarterback Jayden Daniels drives early success while becoming the favorite in the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds. Washington’s home game against the Cleveland Browns is drawing bettors’ attention as kickoff takes place at 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX.

At DraftKings Sportsbook, the Commanders opened -2.5 and quickly rose to -3/-3.5 on Sunday night. Since then, the line has fluctuated between Washington -3.5 and -3 several times and was at -3.5 (-102) as of Wednesday evening.

Early point spread money doesn’t particularly weigh on Washington at 57%. But the Commanders are grabbing 76% of early spread tickets on DraftKings.

Some DK customers choose the moneyline instead and bet on Washington to win the game, regardless of the margin. The Commanders are at -166 on the moneyline, meaning it takes a $166 bet to win $100 (total payout $266), and they take 84% of early tickets/75% of early money.

NFL Sharp Side

Professional bettor Randy McKay shines with his moves over the last few weeks and has scored 5-0. In Week 4, he went 3-0 against Baltimore -2 in a win over Buffalo, Jacksonville +7 against Houston and Atlanta -1 (narrow) in a 26-24 win over New Orleans.

McKay likes the Chicago Bears -3.5 against the visiting Carolina Panthers, in another kickoff at 1 p.m. ET on FOX.

“Carolina has been more competitive the last few weeks with Andy Dalton, but the injuries are piling up,” McKay said, alluding to a broken offensive line and defense from front to back.

Lead receiver Diontae Johnson (ankle) is also questionable for Carolina. Other factors for McKay:

“Caleb Williams has improved, and I see that as a great effort for Chicago’s defense.”

Danny Parkins comments on Caleb Williams after Week 4 win

Danny Parkins comments on Caleb Williams after Week 4 win

Two more McKay bets:

  • Houston Texans +1 vs. Buffalo Bills: “Buffalo’s defense was exposed on Sunday Night Football against Baltimore. Houston’s offense has more options against this struggling defense. Josh Allen and Buffalo’s offense are being pressured by Houston’s defense, and when that happens, turnovers happen.”
  • Los Angeles Rams +3 against Green Bay Packers: “The Rams are playing in their bye-bye week and still have to get healthy. But they’re still a competitive home dog in this situation, against a weak Green Bay defense. Jordan Love and the Green Bay offense looked rusty.” [last week]which makes LA an attractive house dog.”

NFL Quick Hitters

Feazel gave his behind-the-counter insights on four other notable games in the NFL Week 5 odds:

  • Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans: This could be the best game in the early Sunday window, a 1 p.m. ET kickoff in Houston. Caesars bounced back and forth between Bills -1/Pick ’em/Texans -1 and remained at Bills -1 on Wednesday night. “We’re seeing more Bills money so far, which is really a surprise. The Bills were overrun by the Ravens, but bettors are still coming back to the Bills.”
  • Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals: It’s kickoff again at 1 p.m. ET, Cincy is home. Baltimore opened -3 (even) and was -2.5 (-115) on Wednesday night. “No surprise, we see money flowing to the Ravens. We were Ravens -3 for a short time, but that was quickly wiped out.”
  • Dallas Cowboys vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steel City hosts the game Sunday night at 8:20 p.m. ET. Pittsburgh has fluctuated between -2.5 and -2 several times this week and was at -2.5 on Wednesday evening. “There is a little more positivity for the Steelers this season. They are much more impressive than we thought. Right now we see more Cowboys money, but a very small decision. I expect some back and forth action until Sunday.”
  • New Orleans Saints vs. Kansas City Chiefs: The host Chiefs have opened at -5.5 so far, peaked at -6 and bottomed out at -5. Kansas City was -5.5 as of Wednesday evening. “We’re actually seeing more action from the Saints at the moment. I don’t think that line is going to get to 7 or 4.5.” With the Chiefs at home on Monday night, don’t be surprised if the KC crowd is late

I like big bets and I can’t lie

As usual, the majority of big NFL Week 5 bets are still pending. The largest wager to date is at Caesars Sports, a $28,091 bet on Commanders -3 (-120) against the Browns. If Washington wins by more than 3 points on Sunday, the bettor will win $23,409 (total payout $51,500).

But how about some key holdovers from Week 4’s Monday night games?

  • $220,000 Lions -3.5 vs. Seahawks (Caesars). Detroit wins and covers 42-29, giving the bettor $200,000 (total payout $420,000).
  • $150,000 Lions Money Line -213. All Detroit had to do was win, and it did. The bettor wins $70,423 (total payout $220,423).

In-game betting – and especially in-game betting – also results in some good payouts. An intriguing tip from the Seahawks-Lions: A FanDuel Sportsbook customer bet $15 on Jared Goff to score a touchdown on Detroit’s sixth drive and Kenneth Walker III to score a touchdown on Seattle’s seventh drive.

Both happened at huge odds of +50029 – or around 500/1. The bettor profited by a whopping $7,504.

Then there was this tiebreaker, also on FanDuel, that was taken before the Titans-Dolphins game: Tennessee’s Tyjae Spears scored the first touchdown, Miami QB Tyler Huntley ever scored a touchdown and Tennessee’s Tony Pollard scored the last touchdown of the game.

With the Titans leading 26-12, Pollard scored a completely meaningless touchdown on a 4-yard run with 24 seconds left. At huge odds of +76049 (supposedly 760.5/1), the customer made a profit of $19,000.

Someone is living right. May we all have a fraction of that luck in the NFL Week 5 odds.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a respected journalist in the national sports betting space. He lives in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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